Par Score in T20 Cricket: How to Read a First Innings

What par actually means

Par is the first-innings score that wins about 50% of the time at a given venue in current conditions. Below par, the chasing side is favourite; above it, the defending side is. The idea is simple, but it depends entirely on context. A total that is well above par on a slow surface might be below par on a small ground with a flat pitch and evening dew.

Totals markets in betting are built around a similar idea. A first-innings runs line is the point where the bookmaker expects balanced interest, which tends to sit near what the market believes is a typical total. Knowing par helps you judge whether a line looks high or low.

Estimating par from venue data

Start with recent first-innings scores at the ground, ideally from the current or last season. Use the median, the middle value, rather than the average, because one huge total can distort an average. Then look at how often scores at different levels were defended.

Reading the example

The median of these ten made-up totals sits between 155 and 158, about 156. Scores of 155 and above were defended five times out of six; scores below 155 were defended once in four. So a rough par for this imaginary venue is in the mid-150s. Ten matches is a small sample, so treat the estimate as a range, perhaps 150 to 160, rather than a single number.

Next, adjust for today. A pitch report suggesting a slower surface, a big boundary or bowler-friendly conditions pushes par down. Expected dew, which helps the side batting second, pushes it up, because the first side needs extra runs to compensate. Changes in team strength matter less to par itself than to who is likely to reach it.

Projecting a total mid-innings

A quick projection is current score plus current run rate times overs left, then an allowance for the death overs. Suppose, hypothetically, a side is 82 for 2 after 10 overs. At the current 8.2 an over, 10 more overs would add 82, for 164. Sides with wickets in hand often accelerate at the end, so the real total might run higher; sides that lose wickets often fall short.

A simple rule of thumb is to add a little for each wicket in hand above five or six at the halfway mark, and subtract for each below. It is crude, but it is better than projecting from the run rate alone. Our required run rate post explains the chasing side of the same arithmetic.

• Use the median of recent first-innings scores at the venue.
• Check how often totals around that level were defended.
• Adjust for pitch, boundaries and dew.
• Project mid-innings from score, rate and wickets in hand.

Par and betting

If you bet on first-innings runs, compare the line with your par estimate. A line well above your par range might suggest the market sees something you do not, such as a flatter pitch than usual. A line close to par is where most of the uncertainty lies. Either way, par is an estimate, not a forecast, and we do not publish predictions. See cricket odds for reading prices and BPL betting for venue-led thinking in the home league.